• Question: What are your current predictions for future climate?

    Asked by SamK to Hazel on 8 Feb 2021.
    • Photo: Hazel Jeffery

      Hazel Jeffery answered on 8 Feb 2021:


      When climate predictions are made, they are often done for different scenarios of what the world will be like, ie. will we still be using the same amount of fossil fuels, and will population growth continue at the same rate.
      Generally, in the future, we project that the UK will see:
      -Warmer and wetter winters
      -Hotter and drier summers
      -More frequent and intense weather extremes (rainfall, floods, storms, heatwaves)
      By 2070, winter could be 1 to 4.5 oC warmer and up to 30% wetter.
      and summers could be 1 to 6 oC warmer and up to 60% drier. Heatwaves will be more frequent.

      These are based using computer models which are based on our understanding of how the earth works, including oceans, land, ice, atmosphere. So whilst we know a lot about how these things work, we still have a long way to go before we can make better estimates (predictions) of what we think will happen. One thing is for sure, we all need to act on climate change now.
      Here’s a link with some more information https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change

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